Business Transformations of the Future - Foresight Expert David E. Kalisz
David E. Kalisz is an Expert in Futures Studies, Strategic Foresight and scenario Planning, Certified Foresight Practitioner (IFTF), member of Association of Professional Futurists and International Institute of Forecasters. He teaches Megatrends and Understanding Future at the Paris School of Business and, as a speaker of Future Summit 2020 gave us some insights into the world tomorrow.
David, what do you see as 2-3 main shifts in business around the world from 2021 onwards?
The world is changing, but it has always been changing. It is nothing new. However, the difference is that today, in the era of the global Covid-19 pandemic, it changes much faster. Today's businesses have been turned upside down in many ways. Some companies have been forced to suspend their activities; others work in an atmosphere of unimaginable uncertainty. We often ask ourselves whether the future of business after Covid-19 will be better than worse. As I deal with future scenarios and strategic foresight daily, I try to explain that the future should be seen in other categories, sometimes even in categories that are not yet defined today. That approach leads to looking at the future through the prism of transformation - a state with no historical equivalent.
The upcoming year will be better structured and future-ready as future studies' interest has significantly increased. I notice that today's businesses are much more interested in looking at the long-time horizon and looking for directions on the market that will allow them to adapt to the so-called New Normal quickly. In future studies, it is New Normal. In 2021 we should expect an increase in remote work, distance learning, thinking about leadership in terms of trust, and, most importantly, collaboration. People are not created for isolation. They feel an inner desire and need to be with other people, share knowledge, and continuously learn (lifelong learning). In the short term, many people will redefine their values, and businesses will become more local and more human.
What set of skills that employees and entrepreneurs need for the future? Is there anything new due to Covid?
For at least several years, there has been discussion of moving towards soft skills and focusing on human competencies that cannot be automated or easily copied. The direction of soft skills development is also accompanied by evolving technology, but even before COVID-19, revolutions in technologies, consumer preferences, and business models were affecting the global workforce. These trends can also be seen in the best universities, which prepare their students to live in a different reality unknown to us today. This set of skills is mainly about creativity, persuasion, collaboration, adaptability, and emotional intelligence. Covid-19 did not change the list of these soft skills but showed that we must act differently in today's very complicated and ambiguous world. I would risk saying that Covid-19 strengthened this list. However, research shows that access to knowledge, despite its universality, is very unequal today. McKinsey (2020) states that 14 percent of the global workforce will need to be reskilled entirely, and 40 percent will need partial reskilling to continue with their current occupation. In addition to soft skills, a set of four essential skills is identified that is required during the chaos (probably leading to a deep crisis) caused by the pandemic:
1. Expand the ability to operate at pace in a wholly digital environment
2. Further develop cognitive skills for redesign and innovation
3. Strengthen social and emotional skills to ensure effective collaboration, management, and self-expression
4. Build adaptability and resilience to thrive during COVID-19 aftershocks and beyond.
How do you see the future of work in the next 5 years?
The next five years' perspective changes our thinking trajectory, although I would like to make it clear here that the "future" we want to talk about here starts only in 10 years... What will happen in 5 years is not the future, but only a "reactive zone", i.e., answers to the signals of changes taking place on the markets today. To talk about the future of work, we need to look at what will happen in two ways: (1) - Covid-19 will disappear (or not), and (2) we will return to the once known normality (or we will live differently). We tend but also hope that everything will return to the old norm, but there will probably be no return to the way we work before the pandemic. The changes in professional life caused by Covid-19 will accompany us for many years. Certainly, the development of technology, artificial intelligence, machine learning, automation... in 5 years will significantly simplify some of our daily tasks. But still, five years is not enough for permanent changes in our behavior.
Many trends focus on more responsible living, sustainable development, zero waste, and life without plastic concepts, which will probably push us to be better humans. Although technologies and the development of the Internet's speed will allow us to work faster and, in some way, more comfortable, we should remember that purchasing power and access to the technologies are not the same everywhere. They have never been evenly distributed.
We need urgent optimism to see in the technology and digitization of the surrounding world elements that will not be a threat but will help us to solve problems and make us more satisfied as consumers and employees. To do this, we need foresight and the ability to adapt and resist the turbulence quickly. It's not an easy task, but we need to develop the ability to be future-ready and future-proof at the same time. Designing futures and testing scenarios are undoubtedly helpful tools that can help us in this process. I hope that the future of work (despite the massive growth of technology and already noticeable automation) will be more human.